Our mainstream media like to follow certain memes. One of them can be called “Chance of a Lifetime” — when an opportunistic government seeks to increase its representation.

The Liberals tried it, when the CPC first formed up and elected a new leader. And this precedent has led certain assignment editors (who, since this is summer and Parliament isn’t in session, have time on their hands) to ask for stories speculating on a fall election. Their reasoning: Tory popularity + Liberal disarray = “Vote in the fall!”

Thus this story in the Hill Times, where it’s suggested that the softwood lumber issue could be used to deliberately trigger a fall election:

Prime Minister Stephen Harper told Calgary radio show host Dave Rutherford last week that he considers the proposed softwood lumber deal with the United States a confidence matter and is prepared to stand or fall on the issue in the House of Commons in the fall session.

Asked whether his minority government can get enough support in the House of Commons, Mr. Harper said: “This will be a confidence measure when it comes forward because it involves taxation measures, so we will see.”

Meanwhile, one other long-time Liberal said in the life of a minority government, the government of the day likes to plan three or four opportunities during the year to be able to “pull the trigger” on Parliament, but the Grit said the government has to have the political leverage and it has to call an election when it thinks it can win it.

In the House, however, there isn’t an appetite for an election amongst the opposition parties right now and the threat of a fall election could also serve as leverage for the government to manage the House, said the Liberal.

“But I am also of the view that if the ducks lined up, the Tories would also pull the trigger this fall. It’s one of the options that they would have available to them,” said the Liberal, pointing out that before the current government comes to that it has to be strong in the polls, it must ensure it’s not seen as an opportunistic move hoisted by the government onto an election-weary electorate, and it would have to be seen as the opposition parties bringing the government down and not the reverse.

“Under those conditions, I think they would take a very serious look at going,” said the political player.

And it’s worth pointing out that of this “Liberal’s” three points, only one is a certainty: the Tories’ standing in the polls. The second one can only be a speculation, and the third one is unlikely to happen — because we have yet to see consensus among the opposition leaders that the government has lost Parliament’s confidence.

And then we have this other story by Gloria Galloway in the Globe and Mail:

Last summer, Mr. Harper was battling image problems and the threat of mutiny. He was described as too staid, too serious and too angry to charm Canadian voters. Some members of his own party were calling for his resignation, publicly charging that his leadership would mean “we will never win the next election.”

What a difference a year makes.

Today, as Mr. Harper finishes meetings with his foreign counterparts at the G8 summit in Russia, party insiders say the Conservatives are more united than they have been at any time since the Mulroney years.

So it would make sense that the Conservatives would be making plans for the next election and the chance to dominate a Parliament unfettered by a minority. Certainly it has been an objective — perhaps even the objective — of the PM and his allies.

“We have always said it would be a three-step process and I still believe that,” said Don Plett, president of the Conservative Party.

“We had the merger and we kept Paul Martin to a minority government when he was expected to have the largest majority ever. The next step is going to be to win a majority.”

Certainly the stars seem to be aligning in Conservative favour. Polls suggest that Canadians are content with the way the country is being governed. Party foot soldiers, some of whom predicted last year that they could not win a seat in Quebec, are delighted with their prospects in that province. The waning fortunes of both the Bloc Québécois and Liberals have them making bold forecasts of taking as many as 30 additional Quebec seats.

Financially, the Tories have the upper hand: Recently released fundraising numbers show that the Conservatives raised $17,375,865 through donations last year. The Liberals took in just $9,121,716.

More than that, the Liberals are leaderless. Which is why some pundits suggest it is in Conservative interests to manufacture a defeat of their own government in the fall. But party insiders say that is not going to happen.

Forcing an election while the Liberals are still searching for a chief would look opportunistic, they say. And many argue that no Liberal leadership candidate poses a credible threat to Mr. Harper.

So most predict that the earliest a vote will be called is next spring.

Given that Galloway can’t exactly be called a cheerleader for the Conservatives, it’s taken a remarkably short time for her to write a story about what should have been obvious two months ago: that Stephen Harper was doing a good job as PM.

It’s interesting though. Most of the sources quoted in these two stories say Harper won’t call a fall vote. (And in this post I explain the reasons why it’s not likely to happen.) So who actually wants one?

Prime suspect: the media itself. Elections make for pageantry, drama, ample opportunities for political missteps that Harper has for the most part avoided. Couple that with the dullness of the summer “silly season,” and is it therefore any wonder that some in the media are looking wishful for an earlier campaign?

This entry was posted on Monday, July 17th, 2006 at 09:34 and is filed under Can Cons, Media Watch, Politics. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.