Why Sell Justin?

Much, it seems, has been written by dissatisfied Tories about Justin Trudeau’s family portrayal in Chatelaine. Frankly, all I have to say is people who think they’re going to find hard hitting political commentary in a lifestyle magazine (which is what Chatelaine happens to be) need to consider whether or not they’re suffering from a “derangement syndrome.”

What’s more important is to understand why the article — along with this ghostwritten autobiography that’s just come out — needed to appear in the first place. So here are a few points to ponder:

  • Canada needs a good alternative to the Harper government. This is not a partisan statement, it’s simple common sense. Voters need a leader and party to whom they can point and tell the incumbents, “if we don’t like you, we’ll put this one in your place, and we believe he’ll run things just as well if not better than you.”
  • Canada still doesn’t believe the NDP is the logical alternative. The thing is, as able an Opposition leader as Thomas Mulcair is, he still hasn’t really been able to fill Jack Layton’s boots as far as popular appeal goes. And there’s still the impression that the NDP is too wedded to an ideology that wants to expand the role of government in society to an unwieldy extent. Which means:
  • The popular default for an alternative government is still the Liberals. And it’s going to stay that way, at least for the foreseeable future. The party’s ability to fundraise has improved tremendously, and they’ve launched some initiatives to at least show that they’re no longer the party of Jean Chrétien and Paul Martin.

Now think, very carefully, about the above points. And consider this:

  • Mass media cannot be expected to write pieces that cheer for every initiative of the incumbent government. For them to do so leads to accusations that they’re propaganda shills. And so of course we expect reporters to write stories that point out problems with government and how it does things, at all levels.
  • Good journalism has to have a bias, and has to be activist in nature. To have a bias is to have a point of view, otherwise the reporter doesn’t have a strong Voice that gets the news consumer’s attention. And a good story, a news story with consequences, has to be able to achieve some form of change in the community where it’s read, seen or heard. For example, the reporting on Rob Ford’s administration has led to some serious questioning about the role of the mayor in Toronto’s politics, not to mention the roles of the councillors who opposed him. That unfortunately means:
  • Political journalists will form an alliance of convenience with an administration’s opposition. Both are, after all, in the business of finding out things that are wrong with the way an administration does things, and if one side of the equation can help out the other, then so much the better. Most political journalists working during the Paul Martin era will recall that Stephen Harper was easier to get along with (i.e. more accessible) when he was Opposition leader.

Now, here’s the thing: train of thought number one does not mean that voters would necessarily want Justin Trudeau, right now, as Prime Minister; it does mean that they’re prepared to accept him as PM no matter what the Tories try to argue about his deficiencies.

And that’s really the point of the Chatelaine article and the autobiography: to address some of those deficiencies. Specifically, accusations that he’s a “child of privilege.” That conjures up images of someone “out of touch” with the electorate.

Those Tories who want to harp on Justin being a dilettante like his father might do well to remember the example of George Walker Bush, a.k.a. Dubya. There were lots of reasons why he was able to defeat Al Gore for the Presidency, but one major component was a profile that Time magazine did of him, which focused on a day spent footling around his ranch in Crawford, Texas.

When readers of Time saw the paragraphs about his clearing brush around the property, did they see a millionaire child of privilege? No. They saw a homeowner. That point of commonality was one of the things that resonated with the American electorate.

So, when readers of Chatelaine look at that profile of Justin, what they’ll see is not a politician, but a man who genuinely loves his family. They won’t see an able political party leader because that’s not what they’re looking for. They’re looking to see someone with points of identification (such as fatherhood) that make them more comfortable about seeing him in high office. The same points, in fact, that they were looking for when the magazine did a profile of the Harper family back in 2006.

So what does that mean for the Tories trying to get Stephen Harper re-elected? Simple: unless Mr. Trudeau actually gives them ammunition in the form of public gaffes, any attempt to define Justin as “in over his head” will most likely fall on deaf ears. They’d be better off coming up with reasons *for* voting for the Tories instead of *not* voting for their opponents.

Posted in Justin Time, Media Watch, The Third Party | 3 Comments

Justin Trudeau’s Good Luck

“A lousy week,” opines The Globe and Mail. “Canada’s first war casualty,” notes The Star’s Chantal Hébert. And no question about it: the downside of the Liberal Party leader’s current image strategy has finally caught up with him.

And yet … there will be Liberal strategists who will regard this as a stroke of good luck for Justin.

It’s a stroke of good luck because at least Justin’s revelation of his ignorance on international affairs happened now, instead of in 2015 during an election campaign. Which means he has time to rectify this oversight, get himself briefed up fully on ISIL and the Middle East situation (not to mention memorizing the NATO charter), and (for once) listen to the senior members of the Liberal tribe who’ve had experience in the weeds of foreign affairs.

Which of course means that, in an election debate, if the other leaders care to try him on topics of international controversy, Mr. Trudeau won’t be showing as much of the caught-in-the-headlights attitude that he displayed here. Because his team will have taken steps to get him at least headline familiar with what’s happening out there.

It’s also a further stroke of luck for him because, as painful as this may sound, it reveals significant weaknesses that he has time to address. Such as: well, one, that he doesn’t do well with surprises. And two, that he hasn’t considered serious issues beyond what’s seen in the headlines.

Now if the Liberal higher-ups are really as smart and clever as they think they are, they could judo-flip this into an approach that appeals to the public. Because the sort of ignorance that we’re talking about here isn’t really unique to Justin Trudeau, but a fair chunk of the electorate.

Take, for example, not knowing about Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty (which, by the way, you can find here). Sure, Mr. Trudeau didn’t know what it was — but neither, I suspect, does the average coffee-drinker at Tim Horton’s; they’d have to look it up on Wikipedia. It’s the type of knowledge that, frankly, we don’t need, in order to get through everyday life; if he were not a Party leader, most people wouldn’t expect Justin to know that either.

Exposing a target’s ignorance, especially when the target is a public figure, is known as the “gotcha” strategy, and deployed carefully it can derail a politician’s goals. Use it too often, however, and the voting public begins to gain sympathy for the target — enough, in fact, to keep him or her viable as a political threat, which is one of the reasons why Sarah Palin and Rob Ford have managed to stay a viable force in politics. The temptation for Tory strategists and other anti-Trudeau forces will be to employ the “gotcha” strategy on every portfolio that they think a Prime Minister should be familiar with, and then crow about Trudeau’s attempts to avoid tripping up. Such people forget that there is nobody as unpopular in politics as a smug, clever pol who tries to make opponents look stupid. (To those who cry out “criminal record!” we merely point to the career of Washington DC mayor Marion Barry, who won a term in office despite having one.)

Posted in Justin Time, The Third Party | 3 Comments

Reflections on the 1984 Conservative Renaissance

For those Tories with a sense of history, today is special. Today is the 30th anniversary of the election that brought Brian Mulroney and the then-Progressive Conservatives to a majority government, and that handed the federal Liberals under John Turner their first major defeat of the 20th century.

Mark Kennedy has a piece on Brian Mulroney’s reflections on his achievement, and Warren Kinsella is commemorating it as well. Naturally Mr. Kinsella would like to draw a parallel between this achievement and the upcoming 2015 election, casting the Tories in the then-Liberal role, but upon reflection it’s not quite as easy as you might think. Consider this:

  • When Mr. Turner called the 1984 election, he was not in fact a member of Parliament. In fact, he’d only been sworn in as Prime Minister ten days before, and had only become Liberal party leader barely two weeks before that. When you consider that Mr. Turner had been out of active politics since 1975, you have to concede this: Mr. Turner was the most unprepared leader the federal Liberals had ever had.
  • He demonstrated his unpreparedness through the 1984 campaign, first failing to defend the admittedly indefensible number of patronage appointments that his predecessor had asked him to make, and then publicly demonstrating inappropriate behaviour towards a couple of the party’s female senior executives. (There may have been a time, during perhaps the Mad Men era, when patting the derriêre of a businesswoman was considered a friendly gesture, but that time was most certainly not 1984.)
  • Apart from the interruption of Joe Clark’s 1979 government, the Liberals under Pierre Trudeau had been in power for approximately 15 years. During that time, the government had alienated a good portion of the voters over policies like the National Energy Program, negotiations over the Constitution, reorganizations of the Canadian Forces, and so on. Perhaps it’s unfair to say that Mr. Turner suffered for the “sins” of Mr. Trudeau, but there’s still some truth in that sentiment.

It should be pointed out that Mr. Turner did, in fact, make up for his lack of preparedness. Four years later he was able to bring the party back to a credible standing in the House, helping to turn the Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement into a viable campaign issue.

It should also be remembered that, particularly during the period after the 1988 election, Mr. Mulroney’s government was actually polling at lower numbers than what Stephen Harper’s Tories are doing today. And today Mr. Mulroney is being remembered by both his allies and his then-critics as a great statesman, mainly for his stand on apartheid and his work on free trade. Not a bad legacy, eh?

Posted in Can Cons, History, The Third Party | Tagged , , , | 7 Comments

Stephen Harper Is The Face of Democracy

There’s a peculiarly funny bit in this Ottawa Citizen story covering the first event of the People’s Social Forum, which happened to be a march on Parliament Hill yesterday. It’s about the child of labour leader Chris Wilson:

Wilson’s eight-year-old daughter, Sasha, held a sign that read: “No more Harper. Not cool.” Asked why she doesn’t think the prime minister is cool, Sasha said, “I don’t know. My daddy says so.”

It’s funny because that’s pretty much indicative of progressive politics in Canada these days. Ask why they hate the Harper government, and they’re more likely to sputter out insults and invective rather than hand out anything resembling a reasoned argument.

They don’t really know why they think the Harper government is bad for Canada; but they know what “Daddy” says. And “Daddy,” in this case, is the popular “groupthink” of the Left, the hyperpartisan set of so-called counter-Establishment thinking that constitutes an Establishment of its own, the one that hates conservatism simply because it’s too intellectually lazy to consider its merits — not to mention their own deficiencies.

But here’s the thing. These people often forget that Stephen Harper did not become Prime Minister of Canada all on his own. He got there with the help of about 5.8 million people, the ones who voted Conservative back in 2011.

Now of course the Left will haul out that hoary old chestnut about how that’s a minority of the total votes cast. What that line of reasoning conveniently omits is that the remaining votes were split between the other four national parties (and yes, the Bloc and the Greens are national parties), which means that the Canadian Left simply failed to coalesce behind a single party.

Which means that the Harper majority is not just a result of Harper’s efforts, but of the Left’s failures — most particularly, their failure to sell a progressive vision of how Canada ought to work. Not merely to mainstream voters, but to each other.

A lot of punditry will complain that Harper’s politics are about division — dividing the electorate instead of unifying the country, et cetera. But they somehow forget that division is democracy. Arguing for one idea may be persuasive, but it’s hardly democratic. For that, you need two or more ideas in competition with each other, and theoretically once they’re all argued out, the one that makes the most sense wins. One of the reasons why the Canadian Left tends to be mocked or ignored in favour of the so-called “politics of personality” is that they’re rendered too incoherent by their own hatred of the Establishment to mount an effective counter-argument.

The marchers of the Peopls Forum hate Harper. Okay, it’s good to get that off your chests. They just need to remember that emotion does not necessarily translate into action — and that the people who voted Conservative in 2006, 2008 and 2011 won’t change their vote just because the Forum participants say so. That, too, is democracy.

Posted in Federal Government | 3 Comments

The Opposition Merits Protection Too

I think what disturbs me most about this Third Party Leader house break-in story is this bit near the end:

According to the RCMP, it is “mandated at all times, during both private and official functions, for the personal protection of the Governor General of Canada, the prime minister, their families and residences.”

The RCMP says it is “responsible for the safety” of Supreme Court and Federal Court judges, as well as federal cabinet ministers. Its protective policing unit also provides security for Parliament Hill, Rideau Hall and the Supreme Court of Canada.

However, its website does not mention mandated protection for any additional politicians.

This would seem to be a glaring omission, because there is certainly one politician who does merit this protection: the Leader of the Opposition.

Partisans may protest over this, but the simple fact of the matter is that, under our parliamentary system, the Official Opposition are the de-facto government-in-waiting, the folks in the best position to replace the old lot when the electorate gets tired of them. Stephen Harper recognizes this, which is why he began the unofficial practice of appointing new Opposition leaders like Michael Ignatieff and Thomas Mulcair to the national Privy Council. (He didn’t do so with Stéphane Dion because, as a former cabinet minister, Dion was already a member.)

Since Stornoway, the Opposition leader’s residence, is an official government residence, it shouldn’t be too much of an issue to have a security detail there. Mr. Trudeau, of course, is a different matter: even though he heads the traditional “Natural Governing Party,” right now they’re in third place in Parliamentary rankings, and as a third party leader he doesn’t have as many entitlements. And since his parliamentary home is in Rockcliffe, one of the more exclusive neighborhoods in Ottawa, having neighbors complicates the issue further.

My own personal feeling is that, yes, Mr. Trudeau should have some form of security due to his job, and yes, it should be paid for on the federal tax bill, because Mr. Trudeau is the national leader of a party that still has official party status. (Neither the Bloc nor the Greens can claim this.) I’d have to hear some pretty serious-minded arguments to reconsider this position, and I think most people would agree.

Posted in Federal Government, Justin Time | Tagged , | 7 Comments

When Justin Fights Tony Ianno, He Fights Stephen Harper Too

Should those young “advisors” in the Prime Minister’s Office ever want to figure out why Justin Trudeau is still riding high in the opinion polls in spite of their negative ads, they should make this Globe and Mail story required reading this week.

First, it’s important that we concede that Justin’s political instincts were spot-on in Trinity-Spadina. He calculated that a “star” candidate plus a highly-motivated riding team had a better chance of taking that riding than a “veteran” candidate plus that same riding team, and by golly, history proved him right.

Far more important, however, is the nature of this lawsuit that Tony Ianno has launched. Let me quote:

The decision followed complaints by several young Liberal volunteers who alleged that Ianno had pressured them, disparaged Trudeau and Chrystia Freeland, Liberal MP for the neighbouring riding of Toronto Centre, and warned them they’d have little future in the party if they backed the wrong side in a potential Innes-Freeland nomination battle.

The comments were “intended to convey the message ‘Ianno was a bully and intimidator then and he is a bully and intimidator now,“’ the former MP says.

“Bullying and intimidation, when used together, implies criminal or quasi-criminal, unethical and anti-democratic conduct. To label a former politician, who served his constituency for 13 years, as a bully and intimidator or someone who condones such conduct is to irreparably damage his reputation in the eyes of the public.”

Ianno “did not and has never” bullied or intimidated other Liberals, it adds.

Y’know, it’s a funny thing about bullies. Have you ever encountered someone who was acting like a bully, challenged them on it, and heard them admit it right off the bat? I haven’t; I’d be willing to bet that a bully, accused of being a bully, will first deny being a bully. Which is what Mr. Ianno is doing now.

Do I believe that Mr. Ianno could be a bully? Certainly. The life experience of more than a decade in politics, on the government side, with an unbroken record in riding wins, can make a person arrogant enough to make the slide from “overly aggressive” to “bullying” in social situations with strangers. It’s a charge that can be levelled against the Harper government easily enough. No reason not to make the accusation in this case as well.

But the takeaway from Tony Ianno is this: he’s your typical example of the Chrétien-Martin-Era Liberal; his biography puts him solidly in this camp. His mindset and behaviour are the very thing that turned Canadian voters off on the Liberal Party in the last half of the 2000s, and made them turn to Stephen Harper’s Tories instead.

The Liberal leaders of the Harper era would have tolerated people like Mr. Ianno moving in the party’s inner circles. In the interests of “continuity” and “tradition,” they would say, pointing out that he was a veteran of the time when the Liberals revelled in their role as Canada’s “natural governing party.”

Justin Trudeau, however, is a different breed of cat.

Like his predecessors, he’s acknowledged that the party needs to reform itself. Unlike his predecessors, though, he’s willing to admit that the Party’s biggest problem are their own veterans. That’s why he expelled Liberal-membered senators from his parliamentary caucus, and that’s why he barred Christine Innes from seeking a nomination. It’s also why he’s taken a hardline stance on pro-choice for his caucus as well as other controversial positions.

Justin’s current goal is to present, in 2015, a Liberal Party that’s completely different from the Liberal Party that ran against Stephen Harper in 2006, 2008 and 2011. He’s gambling that all those people who didn’t bother to show up to vote in those elections (and there’s a fairly big proportion of them) will show up in 2015 to support a party that’s more socially progressive, and more economically pragmatic, than the versions that were marketed by Stéphane Dion and Michael Ignatieff. Add in those who believe that nine years is enough time for Stephen Harper to be prime minister and that it’s time for someone else, and the odds of “Prime Minister Trudeau” in 2015 start to look a lot better than they did two years ago.

And why should this interpretation trouble the Harper PMO? Because their current negative-ad campaign against Justin makes one vulnerable assumption: that the party that he leads hasn’t changed at all from the one that Paul Martin took into 2005. If Justin and the LPC take their reform battles out into the open, as in this case, it focuses press and public attention on the Liberal attempts to reform themselves, and away from the Harper attack campaign. The Liberals will come across as earnest and dynamic, while the attack ads will be dismissed as mean-spirited and stale.

If the Harper PMO were to ask my advice (which of course they won’t because I am merely a voter they take for granted, which is never a smart thing to do), I’d tell them to lay off the ads for a while. If they want to keep busy, they should devise a strategy to promote the Tories’ accomplishments in power; give people a reason to come out to the polls and vote Conservative, rather than give people more reasons to stay home.

Posted in Ontario | Tagged , | 1 Comment

Don Cherry Doesn’t Need the Order of Canada

It seems that Joe Warmington, of the Sun News Network, is a little upset that Don Cherry wasn’t on this week’s list of honorees for the Order of Canada.

He lists a bunch of famous people who are in the Order, and then adds this puzzling comment:

My suggestion is to add another appointment to this list. A regular Canadian. One that sits in traffic, struggles to pay bills and has no political connections. There are more than 30 million to chose from.

One gets the impression that Mr. Warmington hasn’t really read the complete list of honorees. Among them:

  • Colonel Chris Hatfield. Oh. Okay, maybe listing Canada’s latest celebrity astronaut wasn’t to my point, but it does confirm my suspicion that Mr. Warmington hasn’t really read the list, since he doesn’t name him even though he’s a newsmaker. Okay, how about:
  • Richard Vincent Mercer. Oh, hang on — that’s Rick Mercer, isn’t it? Of the Mercer Report, rants and all? Mind you, this guy would probably argue that (a) he does sit in traffic, struggle to pay bills and has no political connections (or, at least, connections willing to admit their existence), and (b) he’s non-political, skewering Liberal and Conservative alike. (That he skewers Tories more is mainly because they’ve been in power the the majority of the years that RMR has been in production.) Okay, let’s try again:
  • Harold John Jennings. Ah-hah — a name that’s not on the news agenda. He’s in for “his contributions to carbohydrate chemistry, notably in the development of a pediatric vaccine used internationally to prevent the most common strain of meningitis.” Okay, he’s not exactly working class, but I don’t think he’s happy about rush hour either. Let’s see who else:
  • Eleanor Collins. For her achievements as a jazz vocalist. Okay, she’s an artist, but let’s be honest now: the vast majority of people who work as artists in Canada have salaries that qualify them as lower working class.

Here’s the thing: yes, if you look at the list of this year’s appointments, you’re going to find a few names you’ll recognize, but mainly in areas of your own interest or expertise. If you don’t pay attention to the music of Quebec, you won’t know René Simard; if you’re not into science fiction or radio drama, you won’t care who Guy Gavriel Kay is. But the one thing you cannot deny is that the appointees are all, in one definition or another, achievers: they have made a contribution to their community that’s appreciated by them.

As for Mr. Cherry? Actually, he has been honoured by Canada: he’s been awarded a Diamond Jubilee Medal. So have the pundit David Frum and Justin Trudeau, who aren’t part of the Order of Canada either. Nor is the bestselling author Ruth Ozeki. Or Michael Ignatieff, the NDP’s Tom Mulcair or even the late Jack Layton.

So sure, the Order of Canada may be a social measure of fame and accomplishment, but it is by no means the sole measure, nor is it really the awards carrot of the Canadian Establishment that Mr. Warmington would claim it to be.

Posted in Federal Government, Media Watch | Tagged , , , | 2 Comments